Future labour force scenarios

See World Bank: "An Investment for Peace" no.2, Chapter 5 as well as Annex module "a) and "c).

Table 2.63, Gaza labour-force participation including active in household production, by gender and age (cont x 4). Percentage of all adults in Gaza

	Male
	15-19	20-24	25-29	30-34	35-39	40-44	45-49	50-54	55-59	60-65	65+
In labour force	15	52	65	68	68	75	67	62	40	31	18
Active in household production excluding food processing	5	6	12	14	15	23	17	27	36	18	19
In expanded labour force	18	54	67	70	71	78	69	74	58	39	30
n	388	273	249	188	163	101	71	59	57	52	144
	Female
	15-19	20-24	25-29	30-34	35-39	40-44	45-49	50-54	55-59	60-65	65+
In labour force	3	8	5	5	9	10	7	6	8	8	3
Active in household production excluding food processing	3	12	20	29	35	27	36	31	34	24	15
In expanded labour force	6	18	24	33	38	34	41	35	38	28	17
n	330	301	235	168	152	112	95	102	75	103	119

Scenarios for the labour force in Gaza 1992-2002

	LF Part.	1992	1993	1994	1995	1996	1997	1998	1999	2000	2001	2002
Male population		192	200	208	217	226	236	246	256	267	278	290
Female population		200	208	217	226	236	246	256	267	278	290	302
Labour force Males FALUP 93	47	90	94	98	102	106	111	116	120	125	131	136
Labour force Females FALUP 93	6	12	13	13	14	14	15	15	16	17	17	18
Total labour force FALUP 93	26.5	102	107	111	116	121	126	131	136	142	148	154
Labour force Males FALUP 93 Expanded	52	100	104	108	113	118	123	128	133	139	45	151
Labour force Females FALUP 93 Expanded	24	48	50	52	54	57	59	61	64	67	70	72
Labour force Male FALCOT 92	72	138	144	150	156	163	170	177	184	192	200	209
Labour force Female FALCOT 92	7	14	15	15	16	17	17	18	19	19	20	21
Labour force Male FALCOT 92	72	138	144	150	156	163	170	177	184	192	200	209
Labour force Females FALUP 93 Expanded	24	48	50	52	54	57	59	61	64	67	70	72

Determinants of labour force participation

To study the determinants of labour force participation of men in Gaza and in the camps on the West Bank logistic regression was used.

The Gaza analysis was carried out by means of PC CARP (Statistical Laboratory 1989) in order to take account of the effects of the sample design of the survey.

The following variables were used:

AGE	Age of person
AGEREG	Age of person squared
YEAREDU	Years of education
RELHREG4	1 if Son in the household, 0 otherwise
MARHHH	1 if married household head, 0 otherwise. This variable combines the married status and headship
ADULTMAL	Number of adult men in the household
ADULTFEM	Number of adult women in the household

The model predicted correct labour force status in 73 of the cases.

The coefficients were as follows:

Variable	Beta	S.E. of Beta	ebeta	Design effect
AGE	0.1440	0.0262	1.15	1.138
AGEREG	-0.0021	0.0006	0.99	1.259
YEAREDU	-0.0311	0.0037	0.96	1.559
RELHREG4	0.5744	0.2759	1.78	1.682
MARHH	0.9757	0.2884	2.65	1.621
ADULTMAL	-0.1645	0.0483	0.85	1.082
ADULTFEM	0.1477	0.0605	1.16	1.587
Constant	-2.0416

The overall design effect was 1.443

The analysis of the labour force participation of men in the West Bank Camps was carried out using the procedure Logistic Regression in SPSS for Windows, as the sample design is different from the Gaza one, and cannot easily be adapted to the format required by PC CARP. Therefore standard errors are probably somewhat underestimated.

The variables were those used in the Gaza analysis, except that the variable MARSON, (1 if the person was a married son, 0 otherwise) took the place of RELHREG4 (being a son in the household). Also, the number of adult men and women in the household were not found to have an effect in the West Bank Camps.

The model predicted correct labour force participation in 75% of the cases.

The coefficients were:

Variable	Beta	S.E. of Beta	ebeta
AGE	0.1697	0.0400	1.19
AGEREG	-0.0025	0.0004	0.99
YEAREDU	-0.0362	0.0052	0.96
MARSSON	1.1612	0.3314	3.19
MARHH	0.9083	0.2707	3.66
Constant	-1.9037	0.6837

al@mashriq                       970126