FAFO Report 151

Projected Developments in the Occupied Territories Using Projection 4

The total population in the occupied territories will grow to 4,023,000 persons in 2012. Assuming that the current population share of each of the three regions will remain unchanged for the next 20 years, the population in 2012 is estimated at 2,200,000 persons for West Bank, 1,480,000 for Gaza Strip, and 343,000 persons for Arab Jerusalem.

The age composition of the population will differ in year 2012 from that of 1992 (as estimated by FALCOT 92). Due to the assumed fertility decline, the population will not be quite as young in the future as it is now, with 41% under age 16 in 2012 vs. 45 % in 1992. On the other hand, the relative size of the age group 30-44 will be larger in 2012, see table 2.20.

Table 2.20 Relative size of specific age groups and amount of growth by year 2012.

Age Group FLCS 1992 Projection 4

2012 % Growth
(1992-
2012)

0-14 45.7 41.1 71

15-29 28.8 28.8 89

30-44 12.3 17.5 171

45-64 9.2 9.8 103

65 + 4.1 2.8 33

15-64 50.3 56.1 112

Table 2.20 shows that the largest growth will be in age group 30-44, followed by age group 45-64. The weakest growth is expected in that of old people (65 +).

The relative size of females of child-bearing age (ages 15-49) is estimated by FALCOT 92 in 1992 at 43.6% of the female population. This is expected to change to 49.9% in year 2012. In other words, almost one half of the female population will be in child-bearing ages in twenty years. The size of the female population of child-bearing age is expected to have grown 116% by 2012. The main age group of child-bearing women (15-34) will grow by a full 172%, i.e., it will almost have doubled.

The following summary statistics (see table 2.21) are derived using the stated assumptions on fertility and mortality for projection 4. West model life tables for each gender and for both sexes combined are also used (Coale and Demeny 1983).

Table 2.21 Summary assumptions and results for projection 4

Year

1997 2002 2007 2012

Birth rate 44.4 40.0 35.1 30.9

Death rate 7.3 6.0 4.7 4.1

Growth rate 3.71 3.40 3.04 2.68

Total fertility 6.19 5.50 4.82 4.13

NRR 2.73 2.49 2.22 1.93

e(0) - Both sexes 66.3 68.2 70.7 72.2

IMR - Both sexes 42.9 35.3 26.2 21.2

q(5) - Both sexes 55.0 43.8 31.4 24.9

Dep. ratio 99.9 100.6 92.0 78.4

Avg. ann. births 103360 111185 114632 116234

Avg. ann. deaths 17032 16707 15293 15261

Infant deaths 4433 3924 2999 2460

Deaths age 1+ 12599 12783 12294 12801

al@mashriq                       960428/960710