Formulation of Alternative Projections

Based on these assumptions, a series of six projections were chosen, as summarized in the tables 2.16 and 2.17.

Table 2.16 Distribution of projections by assumption on TFR and net migration balance
Assumption Concerning fertility
Assumptions On
Net annual
immigration
Sharp decline
6.19 to 3.1
Moderate decline
6.19 to 4.13
Constant
6.19
Net Annual +9 per
1000
----projection 5Projection 6
Upper Limit
- 9 per 1000Projection 1
Lower Limit
Projection 3----
0 per 1000Projection 2Projection 4----

Table 2.17 Assumptions of projections 1 through 6.
Projection Number
Pr 1Pr 2Pr 3Pr 4Pr 5Pr 6
Assumptions
Base
population
in 1000
Lower LimitUpper Limit
2117.42117.42117.42117.42117.42117.4
Fertility
1993-19976.196.196.196.196.196.19
1998-20025.165.505.505.506.196.19
2003-20074.134.814.814.814.816.19
2008-20123.103.104.134.134.136.19
IMR (M/F)
1993-199740/4540/4540/4540/4540/4540/45
1998-200232/3532/3532/3532/3532/3532/35
2003-200725/2725/2725/2725/2725/2725/27
2008-201220/2220/2220/2220/2220/2220/22
Net Annual immigration per 1000
1993-1997-90-9099
1998-2002-90-9099
2003-2007-90-9099
2008-2012-90-9099

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al@mashriq                       960715