FAFO Report 151

Regional Comparison

Although the infant and child mortality rates are falling, they are still relatively high. In general q(x) also varies by gender and region of the occupied territories (Abu-libdeh et.al 1992). For example, in both the UNICEF and FALCOT 92 studies, girls seem to be at a higher risk of dying before ages 1 or 5 than boys are. This indicates that boys are treated better than girls, as mortality is normally higher for boys than for girls, although the reverse is found in some developing countries. Moreover, the UNICEF results indicate that mortality estimates for West Bank are consistently higher than those for the Gaza Strip. Within the West Bank, q(x) is the highest in the southern region and in rural areas. Looking at patterns of decline in q(1) and q(5), table 2.9 presents point estimates obtained from the FALCOT 92, UNICEF and JFPPA surveys and official Israeli reported q(1) for West Bank excluding Arab Jerusalem.

Table 2.9 Comparisons of estimates of probability of dying by exact age 1 and 5 for FALCOT 92, UNICEF and JFPPA and Israeli reported figures for West Bank

	FAFO Living Condition Survey (June-July 1992)			UNICEF IMR Survey (Nov. 1991-Feb. 1992)			Israeli reported IMR
Age of woman	Reference date	q(1)	q(5)	Reference date	q(1)	q(5)	Reference date	q(1)
15-19	Oct 1991	.018	.021	Jan 1991	.034	.041	1989	.0194
20-24	May 1990	.048	.063	Oct 1989	.045	.057	1988	.0208
25-29	Mar 1988	.041	.053	Jan 1988	.039	.048	1987	.0224
30-34	Jul 1985	.049	.064	Jan 1986	.047	.061	1985	.0270
35-39	Aug 1982	.062	.089	Nov 1983	.054	.072	1982	.0256
40-44	Jul 1979	.068	.094	May 1981	.059	.080	1979	.0263
45-49	Jul 1976	.082	.121	May 1978	.074	.103	1976	.0279

As can be seen from the table, the decline of q(x) is more systematic for the UNICEF and JFPPA than for the FAFO estimates. The reflections of the estimates of q(x) on the well-being of the Palestinian population in the occupied territories is emphasized by comparison with neighbouring countries. Table 2.10 presents trends in q(x) for FALCOT 92 as compared to that of Jordan (UNICEF 1990), Syria (UNICEF 1988), Israeli Jews of Israel and Palestinian Arabs in Israel (ICBS, selected years).

Recently published estimates for Jordan 1990 are 36.4 and 37.3 for q(1) and 42.2 and 42.7 for boys and girls, respectively (Zou'bi, Poedjastoeti and Ayad 1992).

We see (table 2.10) that the FAFO estimates for the occupied territories fall between the mortality rates for Jordan and Syria. On the other hand, they are considerably higher than the Israeli estimates for the occupied territories. Moreover, but not surprisingly, they are fully 5-6 times higher than the infant and child mortality rates for the Jewish population in Israel.

Table 2.10 Comparisons of estimates of probability of dying by exact age 1 and 5 for FALCOT 92, Jordan, Syria, and Israel. Deaths per 100 births

FAFO (1992)			Jordan (1990)			Syria (1988)23			Israel
										Jews	Arabs
Year	q(1)	q(5)	Year	q(1)	q(5)	Year	q(1)	q(5)	Year	q(1)	q(1)
1990	48	63	1988	40	50	1986	55	73	1990	7.8	15.4
1988	41	53	1987	34	42	1984	50	65	1988	8.4	16.4
1985	49	64	1986	37	46	1982	41	51	1987	9.0	17.1
1982	62	89	1984	43	54	1980	62	84	1982	11.8	22.5
1979	68	94	1981	57	75	1977	63	85
1976	82	121	1978	56	74	1975	67	92	1977	15.0	31.1

al@mashriq                       860715