Aucbvax.1517 fa.arms-d utzoo!duke!decvax!ucbvax!CBF@MIT-MC Thu Jun 4 00:06:28 1981 SALTed MIRVs Now, if SALT forced MIRVing, then we are now building less economical missiles than we otherwise would: it's cheaper to build 10 unMIRVed missiles-with-single-warheads than 1 MIRVed single-missile-10-warheads. I may be dense, but why aren't ten such independently enmissiled warheads more dangerous than one MIRVed one (assuming for the sake of argument that they are of equal cost). Remember the old saying "Don't put all your eggs in one basket."? Just where did you come up with the idea that 10 missiles with single warheads are cheaper than 1 missile with 10 warheads? This is the opposite of the truth. To a first approximation the warheads are free. Boosters are expensive. Silos + the rest of the ground support (launch crew etc.) are even more expensive. MIRVing was viewed as a great saving for the U.S. Not necessarily that we thought we needed more warheads were needed to deter a first strike, but that a smaller number of surviving boosters could still deliver a devastating retaliation. The chances that the Soviets would launch a first strike are obviously reduced if they fell they must destroy 95% of our missles rather than 80% (these numbers are purely hypothetical). More important perhaps than the MIRVing of the Minuteman was the Posiedon; a single surviving Polaris class submarine could deliver something on the order of 160 warheads (each apx. 100 Kt according to published sources). I think therefore it is fairly clear that MIRVing is not a totally senseless idea in the context of a rtaliatory strike. Unfortunately it is also clear that the concept provides a first strike attacker with a much greater advantage. With 20/20 hindsight, perhaps we might have been more secure had we not intented and proven the concept for the Soviets; on the other hand that reasoning is rather condescending in our opinion of the Russian imagination. It is clear we would be in far worse shape now had the Russians come up with and implemented MIRVing without our having done so. ----------------------------------------------------------------- gopher://quux.org/ conversion by John Goerzen of http://communication.ucsd.edu/A-News/ This Usenet Oldnews Archive article may be copied and distributed freely, provided: 1. There is no money collected for the text(s) of the articles. 2. The following notice remains appended to each copy: The Usenet Oldnews Archive: Compilation Copyright (C) 1981, 1996 Bruce Jones, Henry Spencer, David Wiseman.